Daniel Warner, US political scientist at the Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva.

Afghanistan: Déja Vu All Over Again

When Barack Obama went to the State Department two days after taking office, he introduced George Mitchell as Special Envoy for the Middle East and Richard Holbrooke as Special Representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan. Mitchell gave a well prepared, diplomatic presentation about the difficulties of finding solutions, but he also spoke of his optimism based on his success in N. Ireland. A most impressive presentation by a most impressive figure. As Holbrooke moved toward the microphone, no speech in hand, he quipped to a friend in the audience, his former roommate in Saigon John Negroponte that he hoped to have a better outcome this time.

“…a better outcome this time…” What does that mean? I would assume that Holbrooke was thinking that once again the United States was getting involved in a far away country going through internal turmoil if not a civil war. Once again the United States was becoming involved in nation building, in the first case ostensibly to stop communism, in this case ostensibly to stop Al Qaeda as part of the war on terror.

Perhaps only history will show the true price of the Vietnam War, but we can certainly count the millions of Asians and thousands of Americans dead or wounded in that senseless folly. Recently, President Obama invited historians to the White House to discuss the effects of the Vietnam War on Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society program, indicating how that war is in the back of his mind.

On August 12 at the Center for American Progress in Washington, Holbrooke was asked to clarify the Obama administration’s vision of success in Afghanistan. The Center’s President, John Podesta, pressed him to say how success could be measured. Finally, Holbrooke, said, “We’ll know it when we see it,” referring to a famous phrase by Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart in a pornography case.

Several years ago at a conference, Richard Holbrooke came up to me and asked me if I knew who he was and if so why there was no red carpet out for him. I responded that I knew exactly who he was and that is why there was no red carpet for him. My opinion has not changed since. The United States will not get it right this time since the whole framing of the problem is wrong, as it was in Vietnam. And once again innocent people will die in a useless war. This time, President Obama and Ambassador Holbrooke, you are directly responsible.

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